How many jobs can AI kill

A

I’m confident that AI is not going to wipe out anywhere close to 25M jobs on net over the next decade. If technological shocks caused net, long-run displacement, employment in the US would be 0. Instead, it’s among its highest peacetime age-adjusted levels. But… 1/2

…AI could absolutely drive gross displacement; think of automobiles displacing horse-related jobs even as they created new types of auto manufacturing & services jobs. That’s painful for workers, especially in the short-run & especially for workers in jobs more automatable.

Important to note however that even the amount of gross displacement from AI is highly uncertain; most of its use cases so far augment some tasks rather than replacing entire jobs.