On AI and job automation

If you’re thinking about starting an argument with “AI will eventually automate all jobs,” I’m begging you to (1) talk to a plumber and a kindergarten teacher, and (2) have an economist walk you through how a big increase in the efficiency of producing X impacts demand for not-X.

“Not only do most jobs involve doing work in the physical world (plumbers), many jobs involve forming emotional relationships with other human beings (kindergarten teachers). We may or may not automate the first category. We will never, ever fully automate the second one.”“Even if we eventually invent robot teachers good enough to provide a majority of instruction, having your kid educated by human teachers will be the luxury option and there will be plenty of parents willing to pay high wages for it.

The same applies to coaches, nurses, salespeople, CEOs, therapists, yoga instructors, etc etc.

In the replies

Q2 (Jake Perry):

“Do you think AI can replace 40–50% of jobs? If so, we’re in for a very bad time.”

Tim’s reply:

“Depends what you mean by ‘AI’ if we mean just software, definitely not. If we’re including robots, then probably yes but it’ll take 20–40 years.”