I don’t know if this is true:

“How much copper are we using? We’re consuming 30 million tonnes of copper a year, only 4 million tonnes of which is recycled. That means to maintain 3% GDP growth…..now listen carefully, with no electrification…this is with burning oil and gas. To maintain global 3% GDP growth, we have to mine the same amount of copper in the next 18 years as we mined in the last 10,000 years (combined). In the next 18 years, I’ve got to mine the same amount of copper as we mined the last 10,000 years…without electrification, without data centers, without solar and wind and the greening of the world economy. You people have no idea whatsoever what we’re facing. You’re dreaming.”

I asked ChatGPT about this claim:

The quote is directionally true, but it’s also a rhetorical compression of multiple copper statistics. The headline claim—“the next 18 years equals the last 10,000 years”—is mathematically plausible under a specific assumption set, while some of the supporting figures are a bit loose.

Start with the “~30 million tonnes a year” line. That number is broadly in the right range for global refined copper demand/consumption, which typically sits in the high-20s to ~30 Mt depending on the year and dataset. For instance, the International Copper Association notes annual demand of roughly 28 million tonnes (so “30” works as a rounded, slightly top-end number) (International Copper Association — Cu demand & long-term availability). In a similar ballpark, Natural Resources Canada reports global refined copper production of 27.5 million tonnes in 2024 (production isn’t identical to use, but they track closely at this scale) (Natural Resources Canada — Copper facts).

Next, the “only ~4 million tonnes recycled” line is a little low if “recycled” means secondary refined copper (a common measure of recycling into refined metal). UNCTAD reports ~4.5 million tonnes of secondary refined copper in 2023, which is close to the quote but not quite as low as “4” (UNCTAD — Global Trade Update: Critical minerals (copper)).

Now for the big dramatic claim: “to maintain global 3% GDP growth … we have to mine the same amount of copper in the next 18 years as we mined in the last 10,000 years.” The key is that this implicitly assumes copper demand grows ~3% per year from a base of roughly 30 Mt/year. Under that assumption, the arithmetic works out: the total copper required over 18 years with 3% annual growth is:

Total ≈ 30 × ((1.03^18 − 1) / 0.03) ≈ 702 million tonnes.
That number happens to be very close to the USGS estimate that humans have produced roughly ~700 million metric tons of copper “to date” (i.e., cumulative historical production) (USGS — How much copper has been found/produced?). So, framed that way, the “next 18 years ≈